The presidency of George W. Bush, at its infancy through peak, represented the conservative movement’s crowning achievement. After 40 years of building, it looked as though their movement was unstoppable. But while the Republican Party marveled in its own glory, others were quietly and patiently planting the seeds of its demise.

While nothing is certain, all the signs of a coming realignment are beginning to take root. Rightwing analysts, such as David Frum at Financial Times, and others are talking about their worst nightmare being realized: a strong realignment of progressive forces which enables the left to control our society for decades to come - maybe longer. In Frum’s article in Financial Times entitled “Beware the coming Democratic sea-change”, he says whoever the Democratic Party nominee is, if they win the Presidency, we can expect:

“A greater government role in healthcare, higher taxes, tighter regulation, more social welfare, an increased flow of low-skilled migrants with amnesty for those already here, a cut-and-run from Iraq…”

All of these things are promising. Luckily for him he doesn’t know the extent of the coming progressive realignment.

So what are the signs? And, more importantly, what does this mean for progressive forces committed to pushing America further and faster to the left?

THE CONTEXT

World Events, Situations, and Trends

The Climate Crisis

Along side weapons of mass destruction, global climate destabilization is the greatest threat the world has ever faced. As the globe continues to warm and the climate continues to destabilize - fueled mainly by the West’s addiction to fossil fuels - we will face greater consequences ranging from rising sea levels (which could cause millions of deaths, and possibly billions of refugees), a rapidly increasing rate of species and habitat extinction, runaway pollution levels, erratic and catastrophic weather patterns, resource scarcity (the latter of which could lead to increased incidents of water wars, ethnic cleansing, and the like), and much more.

Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction

After the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite states, a gigantic number of weapons of mass destruction and materials went missing, were sold to unstable or hostile nations, and have been kept in unsafe storage. More alarmingly, the United States has taken actions which, if unchecked, could escalate into another Cold War. One key factor in this new escalation is America’s “missile shield” system which is planned to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic, based on a recently brokered deal with Poland. The “missile shield” which claims to be for protection against “Iranian missiles”, has much more sinister and grave implications. The Iranians are universally considered a threat by almost no one and questions arise as to what the purpose of such a system could be. As many have pointed (see Brian Dominick’s “Media Distorts Missile ‘Defense’ Plans” on ZNet & “European Missile Defense: The Technological Basis of Russian Concerns” by George N. Lewis and Theodore A. Postol in Arms Control Today), since such a system isn’t really for use solely against the Iranians, nor would it be effective in protecting against a Russian first-strike nuclear attack, one can only conclude that the “missile defense shield” is actually an offensive first-strike, weapons system designed to protect against missiles not taken out by a first-strike American attack - with major opponents in the region being Iran and Russia, and elsewhere - China.

The War in Middle East - Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine, Lebanon

The U.S. occupation of Iraq; the U.S.-Israeli occupation of Palestine; the U.S.-Israeli attack against Lebanon; the U.S.-backed dictatorship in Pakistan; U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan; perhaps more than any other place in the world, the Middle East is quickly spiraling out of control into a regional war (or conglomeration of wars), caused by a battle(s) for resources, wealth, power, and influence. The regional conflicts are fueling increasing fundamentalism and violence alongside prodding grassroots resistance and pro-democracy movements (i.e. Pakistan). After over a century of colonial rule, artificial boundaries and borders set up by colonial powers are threatening to rupture and fragment - with secessionist and nationalist movements growing in size and commitment. The Middle East is a region in turmoil. Like everything else in our current context, there is tremendous threats, juxtaposed with tremendous opportunities.

The Possible Recession (or Depression!)

Peak Oil and The Cost of Petroleum

The Blackwater Effect: The Rise of the For-Profit, Private Military (and Private Prisons)

SIGNS IN OUR MOVEMENT

The Movement

Elections

Shortly after John Kerry’s loss in the 2004 election, Eli Pariser, Executive Director of MoveOn.org, sent out an e-mail to MoveOn members saying:

“For years, the party has been led by elite Washington insiders who are closer to corporate lobbyists than they are to the Democratic base… But we can’t afford four more years of leadership by a consulting class of professional election losers. In the last year, grass-roots contributors like us gave more than $300 million to the Kerry campaign and the DNC, and proved that the party doesn’t need corporate cash to be competitive… Now it’s our party: we bought it, we own it, and we’re going to take it back.“

What he meant by this e-mail, I think, is that the Democratic Party could no longer ignore the grassroots and expect to win campaigns or stay in power. He and others at MoveOn and other organizations have said this repeatedly. Whatever you think of MoveOn, or their efforts to engage with the Democratic Party, it’s fairly hard, I think, to discount the role they’ve played in pressing the Party to move away from the center-right politics that they have leaned towards in the past. They’ve raised many crucial issues to national prominence - all very good signs and actions.

In 2004, many prominent liberals and progressives put out an incredibly informative book called Start Making Sense (which I talk about in an early blog post here), which discusses many things that progressives need to do to start winning (electorally) again. Almost every lesson can be applied to how grassroots movements for longterm transformative change can give entrenched interests a run for their money - and win. It also has many lessons that a Left Electoral Campaign should take to heart in the future.

New Brunswick, progressive danes, green party

The Obama Campaign

Huge portions of the American Left has ignored these positive signs.

And you can see tremendous progress in huge parts of the progressive community:

Youth1

Despite Thomas Friedman’s proclamation that the youth of the nation are “Generation Q” or “The Quiet Americans”, my generation (learning from both history, experience, and world-class mentors) is organizing to take America to new heights. That Friedman didn’t see was that, while Facebook and Myspace (and the Internet in general) can be a distraction for young people, it is also being used in a exciting new ways - linking groups who have never interacted with one another, popularizing dissent, and breaking down barriers to activism.

During many previous periods of social upheaval, groups in society - especially young people - have often had raised hopes and a sense of entitlement. It happened right before the civil rights movement when black soldiers came back from war. It happened before Venezuela took a turn town its path towards liberation, when there were decades of raised hopes around both capitalism and representative democracy - which are now being abandoned in terms of “socialism for the 21st century” and participatory democracy. And its happening again in America. Generation Change is was raised with parents who often had social security, unemployment insurance, and other social safety nets. The last remnants of the New Deal are being dismantled before our eyes. We will be the first generation in half a century which is worse off than our parents were. And on top of that, as the first generation to be raised during the age of information technology, we have extremely high hopes and a strong sense of entitlement. Whatever sense of hope cynicism still held onto, reality will shatter. If history is any indicator of what might occur, our objective conditions as a generation will soon lead to mass rebellion and upheaval.

A few projects to watch: Baltimore Algebra Project, Sustainable South Bronx, Students for a Democratic Society (SDS), and the Student Environmental Action Coalition (SEAC)

Environmental Justice

Green For All, Apollo Alliance, Energy Action Coalition, Student Environmental Action Coalition, Powervote

Peace

Iraq Veterans Against the War, Winter Soldier, AFSC, WRL, shifts in UFPJ

Religious Left

The Network of Spiritual Progressives, Tikkun

Messaging

In the world of messaging and learning to tell effective stories and narratives, there are already those in progressive circles working hard on figuring out new ways to communicate our values with the public. The smartMeme project is one of the groups pioneering a field they call “story-based strategy”; an exciting initiative which challenges progressives to reframe the debate using alternative narratives to counter dominant myths around social programs.

Another small collective, Beyond the Choir, is also doing innovative work on how progressives can communicate our values using strategic and well-planned organizing, education, campaigns and actions.

George Lakoff’s Rockridge Institute is also paving the way in taking back language from the rightwing.

Media

Z Communications, The Real News Network, Democracy Now!

Negative trends in progressive media include a lack of support and consistent funding for these organizations. Where solidaristic attitudes and federations of progressive media outlets would prevent any one organization from falling apart or closing its doors due to lack of funding, we’ve seen an opposite trend occurring. With the rise of the internet, which has opened countless new doors for our movement, many of us have started to think that media is “free” - that no one should have to pay for it - or the labor that made it. This is a fantasy. Our movements should drive towards more relationships of solidarity, cooperation and community. No quality progressive media organization that has proven itself should have to close its doors due to financial hardship. Progressive media is the backbone of our knowledge base.

Democracy

Liberty Tree, New Brunswick

The Bolivarian Revolution

One of the most hopeful developments in the last 40 or more years, is undoubtedly the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela, lead by President Hugo Chavez. Its aims? Transcending capitalism and representatative democracy. The alternative? “Socialism for the 21st Century” and Participatory Democracy. I’ll write more later, in the mean time: http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/

TASKS FOR THE LEFT

Mentors

If there is anything my generation needs right now, it’s smart mentors. We need folks to tell us what worked and what didn’t worked in the past. We need to be able to tap into the collective experiences of the last 40 years. We don’t want to repeat your mistakes; we want to learn from them. The youth of American are setting out on the journey of our lives. We are setting out to recast our country from the fires of own creativity, passion, and hope. I’m not talking about dozens of mentors. I’m not even talking about hundreds of mentors. To set ourselves on a winning path, we need thousands of you to start stepping into that role. Not just teachers (though they are invaluable). Not just older activists (though we need plenty of activists of all ages). What we need are mentors. We need folks who will help us through a learning process. We need to have the space to make mistakes, be creative, and push the envelope. But we shouldn’t have to make the same mistakes over and over again. We need to learn from those in the past who were victorious. And we need to learn from the (non-cynical) organizers of the past who lost - and know why they lost. Commit to supporting younger folks in our journey to save our country. Do it consciously as a progressive. Don’t hide what you are doing - our future depends on urgent, overt action. Your conscience (and your Social Security checks) will thank you for it. So will I.
Capacity and Infrastructure

Z Media Institute, Training for Change, the Change Agency, Midwest Academy, Project South, Beyond the Choir, smartMeme, Ruckus Society, the Highlander Center, War Resisters League, New Tactics,

A TRAJECTORY OF CHANGE

Will finish off later!

–

1. Note, by sectioning-off various sections of the Left, I don’t mean to place artificial barriers where they need not be placed, but rather do this to highlight some exciting developments. “Youth”, for example, are working on dozens of issues, including peace, human rights, and environmental justice.

In an Valentine’s Day article in Time Magazine yesterday, Karen Tumulty reported on what appears to be a failing Clinton fund-raising and field team. In a strategy that wasn’t prepared to take Senator Clinton past Super Tuesday, her campaign is now scrambling to fundraise and set up field operations in Texas and Ohio. One striking part of the article read as follows:

“Clinton has shaken up a campaign team whose top rung often seemed to function like the permanent membership of the U.N. Insecurity Council, with each of its often feuding members holding veto power over any move that diverged from his or her plan. Gone is campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, the former scheduler whose primary qualification seemed to be her long history with the candidate. Some of Clinton’s closest advisers had argued against putting Doyle in such a high-wire role, but it was a characteristic move for a candidate who, like Bush, is known to value personal trust and loyalty above all other virtues.”

I found it striking because of what it means for our grassroots movements. Many of the organizations and movements that I’ve been a part of were (are) completely chaotic. There is infighting. There is bickering. There is a lack of unity on the simplest of issues. Here we had an Establishment campaign that is having minor internal fighting - and its losing. There are certainly other elements of why Clinton is losing, though not having a cohesive campaign team must be one of them. It says wonders about our movements getting their attitudes in better shape and doing what it takes to win.

In article in The Swamp, Mike Dorning outlines what the Obama Campaign has been doing to win - specifically what it took to win in Iowa, but also what it takes to win in other states too (and why he’s ahead of Clinton in many respects):

“It’s an old-fashioned counting system redolent of yesteryear’s precinct walks that rates voters based on personal contact, usually face-to-face meetings or one-on-one conversations over the telephone.

The “ones” are the candidate’s strongest supporters — by Iowa tradition, those who have signed cards pledging to show up on caucus night and back the candidate. The “twos” are supporters who have declared their backing less formally.

Count correctly. Keep adding. If the number rises high enough, the outcome is victory.

That is, if the same army of campaign workers and volunteers that has called, coaxed and cajoled for months also can get those supporters to turn out on a bitter-cold January evening at 1,784 precincts across the state. And if those supporters will stay in place for two hours, standing their ground in front of friends, neighbors and business acquaintances.”

Many people who consider themselves lefitsts don’t do this type of organizing. And to win we’d need to have thousands of communities organized on a longterm basis - not just for a single electoral campaign. They don’t do it for issue-based campaigns, let alone electoral campaigns (even if they aren’t national). We don’t do this in cities and we don’t do it in rural communities. And we wonder why we don’t win? I often am thankful that the Democratic Party didn’t keep a permanent campaign like this going. We’d be in deep shit.

Again, progressives get it wrong (Obama knows strategy though!). It isn’t about facts - you can pile facts to the ceiling (though we have truth on our side and must show it). Without a clear vision, an emotional vision, a spiritual, cultural, epic vision of the future - you won’t get the votes. Here’s Frank Luntz - Republican Party Strategist and Message Maker doing a focus group of Democrats after Super Tuesday. He asks “name one accomplishment of Barack Obama”. Almost none can do it. While Obama might have a ton of them. that’s not the main part of his message! (Also see my post: Language Warriors)

====

After the polls closed on Tuesday in Super Tuesday States, Hillary and Bill Clinton injected $5 million from their personal fortunes into Hillary’s campaign. As a challenge, the Obama campaign asked their supporters to match that number. In under 24 hours, that happened - mostly from small donors giving small amounts from their pockets. That number is up to over $7,600,000.00 in a little under two day. TWO DAYS. He reached $6.5 million in a little over a day. Incredible!

The Left should ask WHY this is happening, instead of merely critiquing Obama’s politics (and theres plenty to critique). Below are six of Obama’s speeches. All are incredibly inspiring. The left should learn from his rhetoric, his lack of stupid dogmatic language, his imagery and story-telling skills, his charisma, and his message. We take that message roll with it - using real organizing, and real analysis behind it. We should stop whining and start winning!

====

Here’s an letter to the San Francisco Chronicle talking by Rabbi Michael Learner. He talks about how Obama is basically one of the only spiritual progressives on the national scene:

“Rabbi Michael Lerner is editor of Tikkun magazine, chair of the Network of Spiritual Progressives, rabbi of Beyt Tikkun synagogue-without-walls in San Francisco and Berkeley, and author of the 2006 national best-seller ‘The Left Hand of God: Taking Back our Country from the Religious Right.’

I enthusiastically support Barack Obama, the first serious spiritual progressive candidate for the presidency. Once in office, Obama’s discourse of hope, challenging narrow technocratic consciousness, will open the possibility for serious social movements to push him beyond the constraints of Democratic Party spinelessness.

Spiritual progressives want a New Bottom Line so that institutions, social practices, even our own personal behavior is seen as efficient, rational and productive, not only to the extent that they maximize money and power (the Old Bottom Line) but also to the extent that they maximize love and caring for others, kindness and generosity, ethical and ecological sensitivity, and enhance our capacity to respond to others as embodiments of the sacred and to the universe with awe, wonder and radical amazement.

In our Spiritual Covenant with America ( www.spiritualprogressives.org ), we apply these ideas not only to support single payer health care and taxes on carbon emissions but also to replace our foreign policy Strategy of Domination with a Strategy of Generosity, recognizing that our well-being as Americans depends on the well-being of everyone else on the planet. Hence we call for a Global Marshall Plan to dedicate 1-2 percent of the GDP of the United States each year for the next 20 to once and for all eliminate domestic and global poverty, homelessness, hunger, inadequate education and inadequate health care. It will be up to us ordinary citizens to create the pressure that will allow Obama to fight for the spiritual progressive agenda he actually believes in, but is unsure can be realized at this historical moment.“

====

Finally, I have been looking through Obama speeches. His speeches in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Chicago (Super Tuesday) had something really interesting about them. None of them mentioned God. In the past, Obama has talked about “an awesome God”, giving moving speeches in Churches and other religious institutions. He’s a member of the United Church of Christ, but it seems as if he doesn’t need to wear it on his sleeve. He finishes most speeches with talk about an epic mission to build a better America. Again, if the Left wants to win, we should take notice of why this man is winning…

The language, imagery, rhetoric, and communication skills that every member, organizer, leader, and speaker on the American Left should be using if we want to win in America… Whatever you think of Obama, this is really inspiring. The left must build the capacity to be infecting the media with radio spot after radio spot, ad after ad, song after song, pushing a progressive vision for America’s Future, including showing people how to organize, how change is made, how power is built, and that yes, there ARE alternatives to our current problems.